Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."