Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.